TechTransform, January 3, 2003: In this market, the closer you are to the actual commerce of the internet, the more likely you are to make money - big money. But the farther away you are... the harder it will be to make a living.
Bob Woods supplied the latest stats to support this in his E-Commerce Times article today:
"According to Web traffic measurement firm comScore Media Metrix, e-commerce spending most likely topped $74 billion in 2002, a 39 percent jump from 2001.
"And [Aberdeen Group's] Alschuler expects that when 2002 holiday sales tallies are finalized, revenue will prove to have increased 50 or even 60 percent over levels recorded during the 2001 holiday shopping period."
This explains why "The e-commerce sector is far from dead. In fact, it is booming", while "The environment will remain difficult for high-tech firms seeking capital infusions. Venture capitalists ...foresee little change through late 2004."
Something to think about as you plan your 2003 business.
Other great forecasts for 2003:
Stu Sjouwerman's 2003 Predictions in W2KNews are both fun and detailed. One key statement: "Web Services and XML are THE 2003 hot areas outside the OS-arena."
I'll be reporting on this area further - this will be a 40-billion dollar market by 2006 (says Ovum) - and that money will come largely from existing budgets. Enterprise technology marketers beware!
Robert X. Cringely's Bob's Predictions for 2003 focus greatly on the technology monopolies while at the same time predicting massive disruptions for these monopolists; a classic technology contradiction.
All in all, this should be an interesting year. No one is predicting an end to the recession, but remember to stay close to the commerce end of things.
And take the time to have some fun!
Updated January 4, 2003