WTC Aftermath - What now?

After September 11 - What Now?

TechTransform, September 12, 2001: I think after the shock has passed and our thoughts remain with the many victims, we also need to know: what's in store for New York - and by extension, our national and world economies?

My old friend and longtime New York commercial real estate insider Paul Fetscher wrote the following in response to an email that predicted total financial collapse. I hope it helps you come to your own conclusions. As usual, I welcome your thoughts.

Wednesday, September 12, 2001 2:52 PM

Subject: Response to RE Newsletter Posting

Kimberly,

I'm afraid you underestimate the resiliency of New York. You aren't here, nor do you sense the team sprit being exhibited by the citizens and the financial and real estate industries.

Larry Silverstein just two months ago took the keys to the twin towers under a 99 year lease. He already owned 7 World Trade Center. I have been his retail leasing agent. I assure you that he is a man of the highest integrity and will do the right thing.

By the same token, Westfield America had simultaneously taken over the retail component. I have inspected their plans for a major retail overhaul and expansion. These two parties may be 5 years away from collecting rents. There is no doubt in my mind that the World Trade Towers will be rebuilt and will again proudly stand on the Lower New York Skyline.

The real estate financial ramifications in the short term are nothing but positive. There will be well over a billion dollars in construction. The space in the World Trade Center exceeds the entire inventory of available Class A office space in Manhattan.

Virtually all of today's office space availabilities will be gobbled up. Jersey City, Secaucus and a recently optic fiber wired downtown Newark, NJ all will gain tenants immediately. This will maintain high office occupancy and rental levels.

The financial markets will remain closed, probably for the remainder of the week. Already, firms with trading floors in the World Trade Center trading floors are already wiring and installing alternative trading centers.

The spirit of the people in this city is indomitable and irrepressible. While you may think Doom and Gloom, we New Yorkers will galvanize and stand strong in the face of this heinous crime.

While the losses are inexcusable, this city, this industry and its people will respond positively. We simply will not accept defeat nor intimidation.

If you wish to contribute, contact your local blood center and give blood.

Thanks for your thoughts and your positive beliefs.

Paul G. W. Fetscher CCIM, CLS

President

Great American Brokerage Inc.

EDITORS CORNER

From W2KNews Thu, Sep 13, 2001 (Vol. 6, #70 - Issue #305)

State of Disbelief

Everyone in the company is shocked and horrified about the terrorist suicide attack on the 11th. Indeed another day that lives in infamy. We'd like to offer our condolences to everyone that lost a family member or a friend in this disaster.

From my perspective, the best way to handle attacks like these is to show the terrorists you keep our head cool, keep life going, and show them NO ONE can get you down. I'm sure the US government is going to find out who is responsible, hit them hard, and then prevent these kinds of things in the future. They will invest heavily in whatever is needed to make sure this will never happen again. On a personal level, donate blood to your local Red Cross if you can.

Life will not be the same after this in many, many different ways. I'll look at it first from a System Admin perspective. This will impact us in several ways, to begin with air travel. Airport security measures are going to be very severe. The total travel volume is going to drop, and remote communication via the phone and Internet (think video conferencing) is going to dramatically increase. The Internet just got its own trial by fire and apart from light congestion it stayed up. This is a very good thing. If you want to see the actual stats of how the Net survived, check this site:

http://www.w2knews.com/rd/rd.cfm?id=091301-NetTraffic

Regarding your own sites, you will get a lot more focus on security and disaster recovery. Prepare for questions from your management about your own Disaster Recovery plans, updates of and expansion on it. In the Tech Briefing I have a bunch of relevant links for you.

On a macro-economic scale, from a historic perspective what is likely to happen that the major stock markets will open with losses of only about 5-10%, but then rapidly recover to pre-catastrophe levels. And looking at the World Trade Center businesses, after the 1993 bombing these companies have been working hard on their backup and DR systems, so we are not looking at an economic crisis. We're going to recover fast.

Warm regards,

Stu

(email me with feedback: w2knews@tampabay.rr.com)